Shiller pe

07%. 巴菲特指標+席勒本益比 巴菲特指標75~90%代表股價合理、超過120%代表股市被高估；席勒本益比未來低點有機會修正至16~17倍。 S&P 500 Real Sales Per Share. Using a hundred years' worth of Shiller's data, Garthwaite charted the observed three-year forward returns for various levels of Shiller's PE. 6% over the next decade. Professor Robert Shiller is an author and Sterling Professor of Economics and Finance Emeritus at Yale University. Shillerovu P/E se take říká cyklicky očištěná ziskovost, CAPE nebo P/E 10. Jeremy Siegel however has critized the work of Robert Shiller in August 2013 during a CNBC interview. Shiller, Robert (1996) - Price–Earnings Ratios as Forecasters of Returns: The Stock Market Outlook in 1996 This publicatie was next in line - to our knowledge - after Security Analysis. Shiller's PE has been calculated and interpreted by many With a simple click, Fundamental Charts can be shared with colleagues, downloaded as images, embedded into emails or blogs, or saved for you to revisit at any time. J Mar 8, 2019 · The Shiller PE ratio was about 32. On the other hand, the Shiller PE ratio was at 13. Nasdaq Data Link Code VOL/MSFT. If you’ve been paying attention to the headlines, you may have heard that the Shiller PE ratio is currently around “34. 3, its lowest level in decades, correctly indicating a better time to buy stocks. 6% return for long-term US treasuries over the next ten years. Shiller-CAPE and price-to-book ratio enable reliable forecasts on subsequent stock Jul 22, 2020 · Popularised by Robert Shiller in 1996, the Shiller PE CAPE ratio uses corporate earnings per share (EPS) over a 10-year period. Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University developed the Shiller PE 10 to more accurately reflect long term trends and smooth volatile components of the standard P/E ratio. This global stock market is calculated using an index of the 3,000 largest public companies around the world, including the United States, the rest of the developed world and the emerging markets. 95, a change of +0. How to Use Shiller's Trailing PE Ratio. 55. They are are available for download in as pdf files. Using the Shiller PE Ratio, we can see that the stock market was extremely overvalued in 1929, 2000, and 2021, reaching peaks of 32, 42, and 38, respectively. It works best on long term horizons of 10 years or so. S&P 500 Price to Book Value. But recent forecasts of future equity returns using the CAPE ratio may be overpessimistic because of changes in the computation of GAAP earnings (e Prof. 6 at the end of September 2018. During the past years, American Water Works Co 's highest Shiller PE Ratio was 200. The Welcome to the Online Shiller Ratio Calculator. 95. Where a is the intercept of 1. 48 to 5. In his book "Irrational Exuberance," Shiller shows that P/E 10 is correlated to the subsequent 20 Aug 10, 2012 · Shiller PE/10. ” Historically, the stock market sits at an Apr 17, 2024 · Points are filled by CAPE starting value (red = high, blue = low). The Shiller PE is 34. 75%. Shiller PE Ratio (PE10) market valuation based tactical asset allocation model adjusts the allocation between stocks and bonds based on the start of year Shiller PE Ratio as follows: PE10 >= 22 - 40% stocks, 60% bonds; 14 <= PE10 < 22 - 60% stocks, 40% bonds; PE10 < 14 - 80% stocks, 20% bonds May 3, 2012 · PE10 is also dubbed the Shiller PE, in honour of the US academic Robert Shiller, who popularized PE10 when he used it to predict the stock market crash of 2000 on the basis of an elevated P/E ratio versus ten-year earnings. Now, we need a normalized PE multiple to attain a reasonable Mar 9, 2021 · Tento ukazatel P/E vynalezl americký ekonom, profesor Robert Shiller. The historical median PE ratio for the S&P 500 is 16, but over the last 16 years, it is 26. Shiller PE Ratio for the S&P 500 was 35. 65 as of 2024-05-01, according to GuruFocus: Shiller P/E. To get my earlier papers, one might consult the Publication List, button below, to identify names of papers and The Cyclically Adjusted PE(CAPE®) ratio, “Campbell-Shiller PE(10)”, or “Shiller 10” 1. Jan 27, 2021 · In the first camp is the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE, for cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings. Historically, Shiller PE Ratio Implied Market Return for the S&P 500 reached a record high of 26. 06 from previous market close. They are the price to average earnings from the past ten years. Shiller: Is the Stock Market Overvalued? He said a PE ratio of 18 forecasts a real return of 5. At that time, the Shiller PE US Equity Historical & Option Implied Volatilities (11,304 datasets) View Data Product Pricing. The ratio is equal to the Current Price of the SP 500 Index divided by the average Sep 18, 2018 · Siegel vs. Shiller American Economic Review 2011; Books. This value is now 92% as high as it was in the peak of the 2000 tech bubble. S&P 500 Price to Book Value chart, historic, and current data. Ostry, and J. Description No description for this database yet. 5, the future market return will come from three parts: Download monthly data on the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) and U. The Year-Over-Year growth is 14. If that persists, our model suggests that annualised returns over the next 10 years could be around 3. Sep 22, 2023 · The Current Shiller PE Ratio Is 30. Inflation Adjusted S&P 500 chart, historic, and current data. The fact that the Shiller PE ratio is only used for entire indexes, rather than individual companies tells me all I need to know about how useful it is. Jan 18, 2024 · The current P/E (price-earnings) ratio of India’s NIFTY 50 stock index is 23. 15%. Apr 3, 2024 · Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings "CAPE" ratio also suggests today's S&P 500 is near peak equity valuations with a 34 PE ratio over the last 10 years of earnings. 9 as of 2024-06-01, according to GuruFocus: Shiller P/E. 41 to 33. For example, a stock priced at $80 with $5 in EPS would have May 1, 2024 · Shiller PE Ratio for the S&P 500 was 34. Zisk se v případě Shillerova P/E bere za posledních 10 let a očišťuje se o inflaci. Campbell and I during the 1980s §Characterises the strong relationship between an inflation adjusted earnings-price ratio and subsequent long-term returns Director . It is a metric that can measure the price of a stock compared to the profits a company makes per share. 32. Shiller PE Implied Market Return . It has a reliable track record in determining if the stock market is cheap (PE = 10) or expensive (PE = 25). The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. Mar 31, 2022 · The Fund’s objective is to seek total return which exceeds the total return of the S&P 500 Index. The principle use of the Shiller PE or CAPE PE is for assessing the future equity For Shiller PE Ratio, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. 55 as of 2024-05-01, according to GuruFocus: Shiller P/E. 04 from previous market Sep 24, 2015 · Yet, with the Shiller PE, we're averaging in the $1/share from 2005, even though the same profit power of $1 billion, in 2015 share count terms would be worth $1. (I:SP500CAP) Chart data for S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio from 1881 to 2024. Jun 10, 2024 · For Shiller PE Ratio, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. Shiller PE Ratio for the S&P 500 was 33. Current: 28. The idea behind the CAPE ratio is that company earnings tend to be volatile and cyclical fluctuations have a huge impact on the traditional trailing 12-month P/E ratio. Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price–earnings ratio, or CAPE ratio, has served as one of the best forecasting models for long-term future stock returns. 7% (since 1871 based on Shiller data), though significantly higher than the -10 Apr 25, 2011 · Yale Professor Robert Shiller is widely celebrated for his Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio. Shiller PE Ratio. The CAPE Ratio is calculated by dividing the current price of a stock or the overall market by the average of its earnings over the past ten years, adjusted for inflation. 17 (January 1st, 2024). The CAPE or Shiller’s P/E is a valuation ratio that uses the average of real (inflation-adjusted) earnings over a period of ten years in order to smooth out the large fluctuations in earnings that arise during an economic cycle, causing the Price to Earnings ratio to instantly appear artificially inflated. As of 2022, [5] he served as a Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and is a fellow at the Yale School of Management 's International Center for Finance. The result is used for P/E calculation. Shiller analyzed the S&P 500 Index since 1871 to determine if a ratio similar in nature to the common P/E ratio but with the added twist of 10 years of Earnings Per Mar 29, 2023 · Our Implementation of the famous Shiller PE Ratio (aka Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio) a long-term valuation indicator for the S&P 500. The Barclays Indices are a diverse family of systematic non-discretionary trading strategy indices available across multiple asset classes including equities, fixed income, FX, commodities, derivatives and alternative investments Jul 28, 2022 · Next, I input the CAPE (Shiller PE ratio) for January 1st which was 30. 85 Max: 200. Financial Analysts use the Cyclically-Adjusted Price to Jun 1, 2024 · Basic Info. 08 as of the beginning of this month. As of May 17, 2023, it was still hovering above 29. May 29, 2024 · For Shiller PE Ratio, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The main advantage of the Shiller PE ratio is that it eliminates the fluctuations in the regular PE ratio caused by variations in profit margins during business cycles. Current S&P 500 Historical Prices is 5,431. com are the PE10 or Shiller PE. Even the guy who made the metric says that it shouldn't be used on individual stocks, which tells me that it probably shouldn't be used on the indexes either. Robert Shiller an Economist from Yale University. Visually compare against similar indicators, plot min/max/average, compute correlations. From 1994 to 2007 he has, together with George Akerlof, directed the Behavioral R. The aim is to identify fluctuations that occur in different business cycles. Narratives about Technology-Induced Job Degradation, Then and Now R. 39 as of 2024-06-01, according to GuruFocus: Shiller P/E. 51, a change of +0. By doing so, it smooths out any short-term fluctuations in stock prices that can occur as a result of regular parts of the economic cycle, such as when the economy is in a recession. Jun 1, 2024 · Basic Info. 5 to 33. When a similar question was asked about standard price-earnings ratios in 2017, based on the chart below, it was relatively easy to determine their utility Jan 8, 2024 · The CAPE ratio ( Shiller PE) of the global stock market is currently 22. By using this adjusted ratio, temporary The Shiller PE, also known as CAPE ratio, is the most reliable indicator for long term investors. The Year-Over-Year growth is 16. Robert Shiller shows with plain and simple regression analysis the value of the then still called: Graham & Dodd PE. 60, a change of -2. The Shiller Ratio also known as the CAPE ratio or the P/E10 ratio was developed by Dr. S&P 500 PE Ratio. Market News. Calculation: Share price divided by 10 - year average, inflation - adjusted earnings The indicator works on the M and 12M timeframe and has a built-in moving average that supports an upper and lower bollinger band. Most of my recent scholarly papers are available as Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 29, a change of +9. 9 percent per year for the next decade, with a best-case scenario less than 8. Apr. Key Market Data. SHILLER P/E RATIO Went Higher than 1929! Only Twice in 150 Years of US Equities has the Shiller PE ratio gone higher than the 1929 TOP 2000 & 2022 The Shiller PE is useful as it smooths out the PE ratio over a 10 year average very useful for forecasting. What is the Shiller PE? The Shiller PE is a valuation indicator for an equity index. The ratio is also known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), the Shiller PE Ratio, or the P/E10. That indicates the market is overvalued. The current level shows an over-extension of over 100% from the last 20-year historical average, which had always resulted in abrupt market crashes. 4 implies a real return of less than 0. 07 from previous market close. If we assume that over the long term, the Shiller PE of the market will reverse to its recent 20-year average of 26. S. Information is provided ‘as is’ and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice, and may be delayed. 51%, a change of -0. The Year-Over-Year growth is 18. Last month the ratio was at 38. The Calculating the Shiller PE Ratio (aka cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio). Quant Ratings. 38. 7). 25, 2011 12:03 PM ET 11 Comments. The normal price to earnings ratio is straightforward enough: divide the price of the stock by the EPS to calculate the earnings multiple. ÐÏ à¡± á> þÿ N þÿÿÿþÿÿÿ= > ? @ A B C D E F G H I J K L M Mar 21, 2016 · The Shiller PE ratio has been developed by Robert Shiller, winner of the Nobel prize for Economics in 2013. Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (henceforth P/E) is a potent predictor of long-horizon capital market returns all over the world. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 28. Jan 16, 2024 · Cyclically Adjusted P/E & Sector Performance. But whatever you choose to call it and however many years you look at, the idea is the same – to try to see if a market Apr 30, 2012 · This measurement is also known as the cyclically adjusted PE ratio (CAPE ratio), or P/E 10. 5%, below the long-term average of 4. The current Shiller P. Trending Stock Analysis. Because this factors in earnings from the previous ten years, it is less prone to wild swings in any one year. May 12, 2024 · THE SHILLER PE RATIO. [3] As such, it is principally used to Feb 20, 2024 · The formula to calculate the Shiller PE (CAPE Ratio) divides the current share price of a company by its inflation-adjusted earnings, expressed on a 10-year average basis. Aug 29, 2017 · Using the current S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio, it projects a nominal return of 2. Shiller uses the S&P earnings, which are - according to Siegel - biased. What is the P/E 10? The source for financial, economic, and alternative datasets, serving investment professionals. The S&P 500 Historical Prices. 94. The ratio is calculated by dividing a company’s stock price by the average of the company’s earnings for the last ten years, adjusted for inflation. 3 percent annually, and a worst-case scenario of Shiller PE Ratio. The Aug 6, 2014 · Shiller CAPE - a "Cyclically-Adjusted" P/E ratio based on the current price of the market and a 10-year inflation-adjusted average of trailing earnings - has both gained in popularity and notoriety in recent years, and especially since its originator Professor Robert Shiller was a (joint) winner for last year's Nobel Prize in Economics. The Fund seeks to invest in the securities that correspond to the four “cheapest” sectors of the U. J. Dividend Stock Analysis. 2 and a record low of 4. The Shiller Ratio also known as the P/E 10 Ratio or the Cyclically Adjusted Profit Earnings Ratio (or CAPE) was developed by Dr. large-cap equity market. Shiller 2019 Sovereign GDP-Linked Bonds: Rationale and Design R. Frequency. In fact, the ratio is now at its highest level in the last 20 years. Shiller and V. 5% for stocks — 2% dividend, 3. 5 and b is the multiplier of . The correlation between initial CAPE and subsequent 20-year annualized Nov 22, 2013 · The cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, aka the Shiller PE, is 50% above its long-term average. As is clear from the downward sloping pattern, CAPE values are strongly negatively correlated with future returns (correlation coefficient = -0. But. The financial markets have been perverted & all know this. Learn about the data sources, methods, and applications of these indicators of market valuation and housing market trends. Both ratios are considerably higher than the historical averages which might indicate the the Indian equity market is currently overvalued. The Shiller PE Ratio or CAPE – also known as cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings is a valuation indicator that helps investors & traders to understand whether the stock market (S&P 500) is undervalued or overvalued. The Fund is rebalanced on a monthly basis to create an investment return that approximates that of the CAPE ® Index. Earnings Yield = trailing 12 month earnings divided by index price (or inverse PE ) S&P 500 Earnings Yield chart, historic, and current data. The ratio is able to give a market value rating without Jan 13, 2024 · Using CAPE Ratio to estimate global stock market valuations. edu Dr. Here, there is a complete listing of my Discussion Papers (1985–present). The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. Current S&P 500 Earnings Yield is 3. May 29, 2024 · The historical rank and industry rank for American Water Works Co 's Shiller PE Ratio or its related term are showing as below: AWK' s Shiller PE Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years. The Shiller PE (CAPE) Ratio: Current Market Valuations. 5% Figure 2 illustrates the relationship between the Shiller P/E and 10-year annualised forward returns on the S&P 500 since 1983. 33. Shiller PE is also known as CAPE (Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio) or P/E 10 ratio. The Research Affiliates tool projects a 1. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10. 4. The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE, [1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio, [2] is a stock valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. 3 and a record low of -5. Oct 23, 2020 · Learn how to use the CAPE ratio, a valuation measure that compares stock price to inflation-adjusted earnings over a 10-year period, to assess market performance and outlook. A simple valuation metric for the market developed by Professor Robert Shiller, is commonly referred to as the “Shiller P/E” or “P/E 10”. Siegel's critique. It is the current S&P 500 price divided by a moving average of earnings over the previous ten years, adjusted for inflation. S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio. Typical value range is from 2. Shiller, J. 82. Current Inflation Adjusted S&P 500 is 5,482. 55 Med: 54. S&P 500 is now 40 times the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio). Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events R. John from FL posted over 12 years ago: This is a very thoughtful article. To find the Shiller Ratio value for an individual stock please utilize the calculator found Executive Summary. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller PE Ratio is also called PE10. 36. Permalink. Shiller's data set can be found here. Oct 22, 2023 · The CAPE Ratio, or Shiller PE Ratio, is a valuation measure that helps investors assess whether a market or a company is overvalued or undervalued. The figures on multpl. 86 in EPS. It measures average inflation-adjusted profits over a ten-year span, and indicates We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Robert J. S&P 500 Historical Prices chart, historic, and current data. . edu Telephone: (203) 432-3708 Office Fax: (203) 432-6167 Administrative Assistant Bonnie Blake (203) 432-3726 bonnie. Current PE is estimated from latest reported earnings and current market price. Jan 13, 2018 · SHILLER’S PE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL. The Shiller P/E is potentially a better market valuation indicator compared to trailing 12 months P/E ratio because it eliminates fluctuation of the ratio caused by the variation of profit margins during business cycles. 51. The calculation is similar to the traditional PE ratio, however uses the simple average of the earnings over past 5 years (default is 5, can choose different) adjusted for inflation (default is the Australian CPI index however a different index can be used in the input). The Shiller PE Ratio, also known as cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE Ratio) is a measure of value applied to the S&P 500 index of companies. DESIRE TO BE EDUCATED? Stay up to date on the latest research Jun 11, 2015 · Advertisement. Formula = (1/CAPE) The formula for SWR = a + (b x (1 / CAPE)). 68, and a year ago was at 34. J. Shiller. Jun 13, 2024 · For Shiller PE Ratio, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. blake@yale. 24. E Ratio for the S&P 500 is 39. Shiller PE Ratio for the S&P 500 was 34. 99. The lowest was 26. S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. BookMark. 31 (January 1st, 2024). Stock Ideas. Shiller Sterling Professor of Economics Yale University Mailing address: Yale University Box 208281 New Haven, CT 06520-8281: E-mail address: robert. Robert James Shiller (born March 29, 1946) [4] is an American economist, academic, and author. S&P 500 Historical Prices. Refreshed 7 months ago, on 11 Oct 2023. 5% real earnings per share (EPS) growth, with 2. Source: Robert Shiller and his book Irrational Exuberance for historic S&P 500 PE Ratio. Currently we have a vacancy and are recruiting. 20 and a record low of 4. You should sign up for our mailing list . Opět je vypočítán z ceny (P – Price) a zisku (E – Earnings). The Year-Over-Year growth is 20. Typical value range is from 26. Benford 2018; Working Papers. Longer term, the relationship is weaker but still negative. home prices since 1871, used in Shiller's books and research. 37 as of 2024-06-01, according to GuruFocus: Shiller P/E. 88 bps from previous market close. This metric was developed by Robert Shiller and popularized during the Dotcom Bubble when he argued The CAPE Ratio (also known as the Shiller P/E or PE 10 Ratio) is an acronym for the C yclically- A djusted P rice-to- E arnings Ratio. Min: 26. Can the CAPE ratio be used to predict what will be the future performance of a specific sector? In a white paper published by Barclay’s research department and Professor Shiller (to promote the new ETN/Exchange Traded Note created by the bank), the group developed a sector rotation strategy that outperformed annual returns of the S&P 500 total ONLINE PAPERS. Shiller PE Ratio = Current Share Price ÷ Inflation Adjusted Earnings, 10-Year Average. It is also known as the Cyclically-Adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE). 95%. 14 from previous market close. Robert Shiller of Yale University came up with the Shiller price to earnings (P/E) Ratio as a measure the market’s valuation. [6] Shiller has been a research associate of the National Bureau Apr 3, 2013 · The current Shiller PE of 23. This avoids the issues inherent to Robert J. The CAPE ratio most often serves as a market indicator, so the share price refers to Instead of dividing by the earnings of one year (see first chart), this ratio divides the price of the S&P 500 index by the average inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years. 1, the median value is 6. May 8, 2024 · The S&P 500’s PE ratio is 31, suggesting that the US stock market is 19% overvalued. It is defined as the price divided by a moving average of 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. In theory a long The Shiller PE ratio measures broad equity indices using actual per-share earnings over a 10-year period. Historically, Shiller PE Ratio for the S&P 500 reached a record high of 44. May 21, 2023 · The sixth such instance of the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 surpassing 30 occurred in February 2023. Something not discussed is which companies are included in this study of PE's. At 32, the ratio was the highest it had been since 2000 – right before the tech bubble burst. ÐÏ à¡± á> þÿ k þÿÿÿþÿÿÿR S T U V W X Y Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b c d e f g h i j May 1, 2024 · Basic Info. Our site collects important research both pro and con to provide a good overview of this index and discussies application of the index for investment strategies and asset allocation. 89. The P/Es listed on many other sites are based on earnings from the previous year only. First, what is the Shiller's PE10 Ratio? The math is simple: it's the price of the market, divided by inflation-adjusted earnings averaged over the past 10 years. Export Data. Introduction: The CAPE® Ratio §Formally defined by John Y. Shiller PE Ratio Implied Market Return for the S&P 500 was 2. S&P 500 Earnings Yield. See the formula, examples, limitations and historical data of the CAPE ratio. Jun 16, 2011 · The concept of Shiller PE ratio is known by various names like cyclically adjusted PE or CAPE, PE10 and most popularly by Shiller 's PE. Robert Shiller and is essentially a modified version of the P/E ratio which is more geared towards the value investor. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings ( moving average ), adjusted for inflation. The CAPE ratio of the India’s stock market, calculated using the same index, is 34. Instead of using annual earnings, CAPE ratio uses the average (inflation-adjusted) earnings of the last 10 years to S&P 500 Earnings Yield. The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of a stock market is one of the standard metrics used to evaluate whether a market is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly-valued. (You can hover over the spreadsheet header to see the link) After inputting the CAPE ratio we can derive the inverted CAEY. The red rectangle sums up the observed Ideas. D. 7% (since 1871 based on Shiller data), though significantly higher than the -10 . So Shiller's PE can be a very useful tool for long term asset allocators. The authors describe the empirical relationships among valuation, inflation, and real interest rates, and Sep 26, 2023 · Hence, the Shiller formula implies that by reverting to the mean, EPS will trend not upwards from here, but southwards toward $160. 78, the median value is 15. S&P 500 Real Earnings Growth. And the future return case for US Bonds is even worse. As of May 17, 2023, it was still Shiller's CAPE is a breath of fresh air compared to the usual valuation arguments heard on CNBC or read in the media that incorrectly conclude that stocks are a bargain. 5. Shiller P/E The Shiller P/E ratio, also known as the May 1, 2016 · The Shiller CAPE Ratio: A New Look. shiller@yale. For Shiller PE Ratio, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. 87. The regular PE uses the trailing 12 months earnings per share (EPS). From 1991 to 2015 he has, together with Richard Thaler, directed the Behavioral Finance Workshop at the National Bureau of Economic Research. That is well below the average historical market return. Current S&P 500 Price to Book Value is 4. It is, however, much less successful in predicting short-term returns. Figure 2 illustrates the relationship between the Shiller P/E and 10-year annualised forward returns on the S&P 500 since 1983. The “10” represents the rolling 10 year periods Shiller uses to calculate PE 10. mu cr xr gq vg ic fo tz tq ow